Estimating 2035 iPhone Users

Surveying multiple sources

We have a firm hold on the number of active devices as well as the number of iPhones in use. This is due to Apple reporting the data. The latest active device count was 2.5 billion and the estimate for active iPhones is 1.6 billion.

This patters also allows us to forecast the active base pretty accurately as the growth is predicted by the tight fitting linear approximation.

For more confidence it would be useful to confirm these predictions with different estimates. For this I turned to two additional sources: the Statcounter GlobalStats measure of Mobile Operating System Market Shares Worldwide coupled with Number of Smartphone Users Worldwide (forecast by Ericsson) and the Number of of iPhone Users from Bankmycell.

The total Smartphone Users history and forecast is shown below:

The Mobile Operating System Market Share Worldwide is shown below:

Multiplying these two yields the Mobile Operating System Users

The iOS users (orange line) can now be compared to Apple’s own reported active device total (grey line) and the Bankmycell estimate as well as a derived estimate from Counterpoint (24% share of install base)

The graph includes forecasts from 2025 to 2029.

Discussion:

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