Apple’s guidance: in six months there will be a new set of worries

An Office Hours question asked by Joseph B., July 31, 2026.

Q: What’s up with the guidance? And why does this seem to be news to Mr. Market?

Start by not getting emotional about this, because I’ve seen so many times mispricing of Apple. But the market, as they say, is always right. It is simply the voting of a lot of people, and what it determines is the market price. It doesn’t determine right or wrong, it just says that’s what the market thinks.

The thing about the last few weeks, or even months, has been that Apple’s been caught in a debate about whether AI is going to pay off or not. It was used by a lot of people who wanted to rotate out of AI names into something safe, and Apple seemed to be that choice. Apple never wanted to be chosen as a safe harbor. Management doesn’t have that as their KPI, or in their plans, or in the product pipeline.

So strange things happen. It was unexplainable to me why the stock went up as it did in many days over the last few weeks. It was good and I felt it was fair. If it had been trading at 50 P/E, I would have been getting a little bit nervous, thinking it’s maybe not justifiable. But there are many companies trading at hundreds of P/E, and who’s to say that’s wrong?

It seemed to have run ahead of itself a little bit. But on the other hand, the reaction is completely unwarranted if it’s based on what Apple reported. Apple reported a very strong quarter. It reported some circumstances that are unusual. Foreign exchange is one. The struggle with getting supply is another. By the way, nobody seems to talk about memory anymore. Nobody seems to talk about the fact that we’ve seen price increases, which was just a month ago. It’s all now that Apple is constrained, for other reasons. In six months we’ll totally forget about this, and there’ll be a new set of worries.

Fundamentally, the company is doing very well. I think it is entering a cyclical period of above-average growth. It might be because products are getting a little bit old in people’s hands. It might be that demand will truly pull forward a lot of new consumption, but it’s constrained by being able to deliver. Again, not the first time.

It’s surprising to me how volatile, though — to see a 10% drop in one day, including after hours. I don’t recall there being that much movement even in the times of Steve Jobs, when we did have huge volatility. But perhaps my memory’s weak. On fundamentals alone: the next quarter, which isn’t even a holiday quarter, growing 10% — as a disappointment? It’ll re-accelerate.

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Editor’s Note: This was one of the questions asked by participants in Asymco’s July 2026 Office Hours live Q&A session, held the day after Apple’s FQ3 2026 earnings and open to Asymco One subscribers.

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