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The Android step function
There is precious little data on Android units sold. There are estimates but no actual summary. Google themselves don’t seem to know as they don’t report sales, preferring to report “activations.” Assuming that…
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Farshad
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Revisiting Estimates for Apple’s second quarter earnings (ended March)
Estimates for Apple’s second quarter earnings ending March | asymco. Since making the original estimates In January, I revised them at the end of March to the following: In the past I was comfortable keeping untouched…
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First quarter PC forecast: Windows down 2%, Mac+iPad up 250%
Charles Arthur of The Guardian writes that PC sales “may have passed their peak“. That’s a powerful, concise statement. It’s backed up by a quote from Gartner’s Mikako Kitagawa: “This was the third consecutive quarter of…
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Mobile device OS upgrades: How hard can it be?
Until the iPhone’s arrival in 2007, upgrading the software on a mobile phone was a rare experience for users. So rare that effectively it was not done. Few people were bothered though since they did not see the product…
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Pattern recognition for smartphone investors
I spent the last few days in Hong Kong at a conference discussing the smartphone industry. The participants were mainly investors or investment managers. One of the most frequently asked questions was how to spot…
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HTC and self-determination
HTC’s market cap has just overtaken Nokia’s. While market capitalization is a fickle thing, shifting with sentiment, this is still a remarkable feat. Nokia’s market capitalization has almost halved in the space of a year…
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Divinely inspired analysis
Three things stand out from Gartner’s latest smartphones forecast: The latter two claims are illustrated below: Notwithstanding the defensibility of these claims Gartner analysts makes some further assumptions (quoted…
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Expert system
Since starting this blog, I’ve receives several requests for career advice. I am most heartened and humbled by these requests, especially when they come from young people just starting out. I’ve responded as best I can…
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When will smartphones become phones?
The US smartphone penetration continues to accelerate. ComScore has been reporting the estimated absolute number of smartphone users and the last month saw a significant increase of 1.58% in penetration. About 30% of the…
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The pitfall in platform predictions
It’s a great misfortune that we don’t have data about the future. It makes it hard to tell what’s going to happen. It’s even harder because although sometimes we have data about the past, the past and the future don’t…