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Research

  1. How close to saturation is the smartphone?

    · · Research

    The US is not the market where penetration is highest. However, it is the largest market where we have reliable penetration data (from at least two sources) and the one where penetration is near the top of the range. The…

  2. The iPad discontinuity

    · · Research

    iPad sales were unexpectedly slow in Q1. Tim Cook explained it as follows: iPad sales came in at the high end of our expectations, but we realized they were below analysts’ estimates and I would like to proactively…

  3. Monthly Apple Users

    · · Research

    In the postmodern computing world that we live in, the measure of success isn’t revenue or profit or units sold but the number of users that an ecosystem can attract. Therefore the monthly active user (MAU) unit of…

  4. Surprise

    · · Research

    After n quarters of predictability, Apple surprised with sales performance that was 3.74% above the top of their guidance. This may not seem significant but since instituting a new range-bound guidance method in Q1 of…

  5. On the future of Google. Part 2

    · · Research

    In Part 1 of a look at Google’s future I showed that Google’s revenues have been highly correlated with the population of Internet users in the markets it serves. If there were a causal relationship between population of…

  6. Innoveracy: Misunderstanding Innovation

    · · Research

    Illiteracy is the inability to read and write. Though the percent of sufferers has halved in the last 35 years, currently 15% of the world has this affliction. Innumeracy is the inability to apply simple numerical…

  7. Asymcar 12: Cycle Times

    · · Research

    We discuss the zeitgeist of automotive decline. We marvel – again – at the industry’s glacial pace of change and contrast the auto industry’s tiny volumes to smartphones and personal computers. via Asymcar 12: Cycle…

  8. Significant Digits Episode 1 Part 1

    · · Research

    Show #1: The Future of the Internet and Everything Part 1: The Internet is dead, long live the Internet The data shows the Internet growth will go through an inflection point. Should we panic or celebrate? Watch the…