Q4 PC shipments are expected to fall 20% year-over-year, 11.3% for the full year

If it wasn’t for the MacBook Neo the fall would have been much worse.

IDC now forecasts global PC shipments will decline 11.3% for the full year, with conditions worsening progressively through Q4, when shipments are expected to fall 20% year-over-year.

Pull-forward demand masked the problem, temporarily

The first quarter of 2026 offered a deceptively encouraging signal, with shipments growing 3% versus the same period last year. But that strength was largely borrowed from the future. Buyers, both consumer and commercial, accelerated purchases ahead of anticipated price hikes and product availability constraints.

Pull-forward demand masked the problem, temporarily

“The anticipation of rising prices and of limited availability of some system configurations due to memory and other component shortages has led some end-users to make purchases earlier than anticipated,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, Vice President of Devices and Consumers at IDC. “We’re not seeing any relief to the memory shortage situation before the end of 2027, which means prices will continue to rise and PC manufacturers will struggle to maintain full product portfolios for the foreseeable future.”

One notable wildcard is Apple’s MacBook Neo, which has driven stronger-than-expected notebook demand and prompted IDC to revise its notebook forecast upward.

Source: IDC

NB: The problem is a memory shortage: PC manufacturers are struggling to maintain product portfolios.

“The introduction of the MacBook Neo is putting real pressure on the entire PC ecosystem,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC’s Consumer Devices Trackers. “We expect vendors to respond with a combination of new silicon, a more efficient OS from Microsoft, and aggressive promotional pricing.”

“The competitive pressure from the Neo is providing a partial offset to broader price increases, keeping some low-cost notebook options alive. But the overall trajectory for average selling prices (ASPs) is firmly upward. IDC forecasts ASP growth of 17% in 2026, and even as memory capacity expands over the next two years, pricing is unlikely to return to 2025 levels,” Ubrani added.

As the graph shows, IDC forecasts no recovery in volumes until after 2030. This is a multi-year opportunity for Apple and may reset market share dynamics permanently.

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