My Patrix site
Memory is a Commodity
“I’ve never seen a shortage without a subsequent glut, but I’ve seen gluts never followed by a shortage.” -Nassim Taleb A commodity is a product or service which does not increase in price if its performance increases.…
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Earnings are an opinion, cash flow is a fact
· Farshad · Office Hours
An Office Hours question asked by Dave Emery, June 9, 2026. Q: Are we heading for an AI bust for the large hyperscalers? Or will the spending eventually produce the revenue the advocates promise? And if it’s a bust, how…
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Apple’s Q1 iPhone sales in Africa grew 44%
Overall smartphone shipments in Africa dropped 12% According to Counterpoint Research, overall smartphone shipments in Africa dropped 12% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Factors like rising fuel prices, memory cost-driven…
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Asymco Bulletin 019 – June 28, 2026
The rest of this post is for Asymco members. Continue reading on asymco.com.
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The Memory Shock: Six Readings from a Supply-Chain Conversation
Here is a summary of wide-ranging conversation about the 2026 memory-price shock and its consequences for Apple. Six of my answers worth separating out. My estimate is that Apple will increase by about $100 the average…
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Why is the most expensive thing you own the dumbest?
· Farshad · Office Hours, Research
An Office Hours question asked by Lalit, June 9, 2026. Q: Could some future Apple TV morph into a data center for the family? And what about all the talk about Home and AI? I’ve anticipated the Home story for years, and…
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Why iPhones prices don’t change
Exponential increase in performance at a flat price. Is the formula about to change? The iPhone price structure is very carefully constructed. One could even say it’s engineered. It has operated under many constraints:…
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‘China’s Apple’ is in free-fall
Shares down 63% over 12 months Xiaomi stock price has suffered a major reversal in the last 12 months, moving from a high of H$61.55 to H$22.62 today, its lowest level since September 2024, with its market cap falling…
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The Puzzle of Sustainable Growth
20 more years at 24%? Summa de arithmetica, geometria, proportioni et proportionalita (Summary of arithmetic, geometry, proportions and proportionality) is a math book written by Luca Pacioli. It is a compendium of the…
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Only one in eight smartphone users uses a smartwatch. What’s the problem?
Apple grew at 21%. Global market grew 4% with forecast is 3% growth through 2030 Source: Counterpoint Research NB: 3% growth through 2030 is no growth at all. Non-consumption is catastrophically high and yet Counterpoint…
